From: steph@pegasus.cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson) Subject: Hits Stolen -- Second Base 1992 Summary: Stolen Hits for all second basemen Keywords: second defense Organization: University of Illinois, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Urbana, IL Lines: 117 Disclaimer -- This is for fun. In my computerized baseball game, I keep track of a category called "stolen hits", defined as a play made that "an average fielder would not make with average effort." Using the 1992 Defensive Averages posted by Sherri Nichols (Thanks Sherri!), I've figured out some defensive stats for the second basemen. Hits Stolen have been redefined as "Plays Kurt Stillwell would not have made." OK, I realize that's unfair. Kurt's probably the victim of pitching staff, fluke shots, and a monster park factor. But let's put it this way: If we replaced every second baseman in the NL with someone with Kurt's 57.6% out making ability, how many extra hits would go by? To try and correlate it to reality a little more, I've calculated Net Hits Stolen, based on the number of outs made compared to what a league average fielder would make. By the same method I've calculated Net Double Plays, and Net Extra Bases (doubles and triples let by). Finally, I throw all this into a a formula I call Defensive Contribution, or DCON :->. Basically, it represents the defensive contribution of a player. I add this number to OPS to get DOPS (Defense + Onbase Plus Slug), which should represent the player's total contribution to the team. So don't take it too seriously. The formula for DCON appears at the end of this article. The short version -- definition of terms HS -- Hits Stolen -- Extra outs compared to Kurt Stillwell NHS -- Net Hits Stolen -- Extra outs compared to average fielder NDP -- Net Double Plays -- Extra double plays turned compared to avg fielder NEB -- Net Extra Bases -- Extra bases prevented compared to avg. fielder DCON -- Defensive Contribution -- bases and hits prevented, as a rate. DOPS -- DCON + OPS -- quick & dirty measure of player's total contribution. National League name HS NHS NDP NEB DCON DOPS Alicea, L. 50 21 2 -1 .160 .865 Sandberg, R. 108 42 1 1 .134 1.015 Thompson, R. 65 20 5 -1 .104 .852 Lind, J. 66 8 -2 1 .027 .571 Doran, B. 31 -1 4 0 .014 .705 DeShields, D. 51 1 -2 1 -.002 .755 Harris, L. 25 -4 0 1 -.019 .602 Lemke, M. 43 -1 -5 -5 -.038 .573 Morandini, M. 37 -9 -6 0 -.069 .580 Randolph, W. 13 -16 3 -1 -.088 .582 Biggio, C. 34 -26 -4 0 -.091 .656 Stillwell, K. 0 -43 -3 -1 -.236 .336 Ordered by DOPS 1.015 Sandberg .865 Alicea .852 Thompson .755 DeShields .705 Doran .678 *NL Average* .656 Biggio .602 Harris .582 Randolph .580 Morandini .573 Lemke .571 Lind .336 Stillwell American League --------------- name HS NHS NDP NEB DCON DOPS Fletcher, S. 59 18 5 1 .116 .811 Reed, J. 83 17 3 1 .071 .708 Ripken, B. 56 9 -1 -1 .044 .631 Baerga, C. 67 0 10 0 .029 .838 Blankenship, L. 34 2 2 1 .023 .757 Miller, K. 34 -4 1 -1 -.016 .725 Alomar, R. 62 4 -9 -2 -.020 .812 Knoblauch, C. 50 -13 7 -3 -.024 .718 Bordick, M. 37 -4 -2 -1 -.025 .704 Kelly, P. 42 -1 -5 -1 -.039 .636 Whitaker, L. 40 -8 -1 -2 -.041 .806 Reynolds, H. 47 -6 -5 1 -.043 .603 Sax, S. 56 -6 -9 -1 -.052 .555 Sojo, L. 28 -11 -3 0 -.075 .602 Order by DOPS .838 Baerga .812 Alomar .811 Fletcher .806 Whitaker .757 Blankenship .725 Miller .718 Knoblauch .708 Reed .704 Bordick .691 *AL Average* .636 Kelly .631 Ripken .603 Reynolds .602 Sojo .555 Sax More discussion -- DCON formula: ((NHS + NDP)/PA) + ((NHS + NDP + NEB)/AB) Why such a bizzare formula? Basically, it's designed to be added into the OPS, with the idea that "a run prevented is as important as a run scored". The extra outs are factored into OBP, while the extra bases removed are factored into SLG. That's why I used PA and AB as the divisors. For more discussion see the post on Hits Stolen -- First Base 1992 -- Dale J. Stephenson |*| (steph@cs.uiuc.edu) |*| Baseball fanatic "It is considered good to look wise, especially when not overburdened with information" -- J. Golden Kimball