From: steph@pegasus.cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson)
Subject: Hits Stolen -- Left Field 1992
Keywords: defense left
Organization: University of Illinois, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Urbana, IL
Lines: 105

Disclaimer -- This is for fun.

In my computerized baseball game, I keep track of a category called
"stolen hits", defined as a play made that "an average fielder would not
make with average effort."  Using the 1992 Defensive Averages posted
by Sherri Nichols (Thanks Sherri!), I've figured out some defensive stats
for the leftfielders. Hits Stolen have been redefined as "Plays Kevin
Bass would not have made."

OK, I realize that's unfair.  Kevin's probably the victim of pitching staff,
fluke shots, and a monster park factor.  But let's put it this way:  If we
replaced every leftfielder in the league with someone with Kevin's 49.4% out
making ability, how many extra hits would go by?

To try and correlate it to reality a little more, I've calculated Net
Hits Stolen, based on the number of outs made compared to what a league
average fielder would make.  By the same method I've calculated Net Extra 
Bases (doubles and triples let by).

Finally, I throw all this into a a formula I call Defensive Contribution, or
DCON :->.  Basically, it represents the defensive contribution of a player.
I add this number to OPS to get DOPS (Defense + Onbase Plus Slug), which
should represent the player's total contribution to the team.  So don't
take it too seriously.  The formula for DCON appears at the end of this
article.

The short version -- definition of terms
HS -- Hits Stolen -- Extra outs compared to Kurt Stillwell
NHS -- Net Hits Stolen -- Extra outs compared to average fielder
NDP -- Net Double Plays -- Extra double plays turned compared to avg fielder
NEB -- Net Extra Bases --  Extra bases prevented compared to avg. fielder
DCON -- Defensive Contribution -- bases and hits prevented, as a rate.
DOPS -- DCON + OPS -- quick & dirty measure of player's total contribution.

National League

Name            HS   NHS   NEB   DCON    DOPS
Gonzalez, L.    63    28    20   .192    .866
Gilkey, B.      52    23    14   .150    .941
Clark, G.       46    11    11   .065    .726
Alou, M.        20     3    12   .052    .835
Bonds, B.       54     9    -7   .019   1.099
May, D.         21     0    -7  -.020    .659
Gant, R.        31    -5    -2  -.021    .715
Bass, K.         0   -24    -4  -.126    .600

Ordered by DOPS

1.099 Bonds
 .941 Gilkey
 .866 Gonzalez
 .835 Alou
 .726 Clark
 .718 *NL Average*
 .715 Gant
 .659 May
 .600 Bass


American League
---------------

Name            HS   NHS   NEB   DCON    DOPS
Raines, T.      53    22    20   .111    .896
Anderson, B.    65    30     8   .102    .924
Henderson, R.   43    20     4   .101    .984
Vaughn, G.      55    27    -3   .095    .817
Gladden, D.     25     4     8   .038    .699
Hall, M.        29     6    -2   .017    .756
Mack, S.        38     6    -8   .005    .866
Polonia, L.     10   -11    10  -.019    .647
McReynolds, K.  13    -8    -9  -.064    .711
Maldanado, C.    9   -21   -12  -.105    .714
Reimer, K.       5   -18   -16  -.102    .671


Order by DOPS

.984 Henderson
.924 Anderson
.896 Raines
.866 Mack
.817 Vaughn
.756 Hall
.733 *AL Average*
.714 Maldanado
.711 McReynolds
.699 Gladden
.671 Reimer
.647 Polonia

More discussion --

DCON formula:  ((NHS + NDP)/PA) + ((NHS + NDP + NEB)/AB)
Why such a bizzare formula?  Basically, it's designed to be added into the
OPS, with the idea that "a run prevented is as important as a run scored".
The extra outs are factored into OBP, while the extra bases removed are 
factored into SLG.  That's why I used PA and AB as the divisors.

For more discussion see the post on Hits Stolen -- First Base 1992
-- 
Dale J. Stephenson |*| (steph@cs.uiuc.edu) |*| Baseball fanatic

  "It is considered good to look wise, especially when not 
   overburdened with information" -- J. Golden Kimball