From: steph@pegasus.cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson) Subject: Hits Stolen -- Centerfield 1992 Summary: DCON and DOPS for leftfielders Keywords: defense center Organization: University of Illinois, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Urbana, IL Lines: 118 Disclaimer -- This is for fun. In my computerized baseball game, I keep track of a category called "stolen hits", defined as a play made that "an average fielder would not make with average effort." Using the 1992 Defensive Averages posted by Sherri Nichols (Thanks Sherri!), I've figured out some defensive stats for the centerfielders. Hits Stolen have been redefined as "Plays Juan Gonzalez would not have made." OK, I realize that's unfair. Juan's probably the victim of pitching staff, fluke shots, and a monster park factor. But let's put it this way: If we replaced every centerfielder in the league with someone with Kevin's 55.4% out making ability, how many extra hits would go by? To try and correlate it to reality a little more, I've calculated Net Hits Stolen, based on the number of outs made compared to what a league average fielder would make. By the same method I've calculated Net Extra Bases (doubles and triples let by). Finally, I throw all this into a a formula I call Defensive Contribution, or DCON :->. Basically, it represents the defensive contribution of a player. I add this number to OPS to get DOPS (Defense + Onbase Plus Slug), which should represent the player's total contribution to the team. So don't take it too seriously. The formula for DCON appears at the end of this article. The short version -- definition of terms HS -- Hits Stolen -- Extra outs compared to Kurt Stillwell NHS -- Net Hits Stolen -- Extra outs compared to average fielder NDP -- Net Double Plays -- Extra double plays turned compared to avg fielder NEB -- Net Extra Bases -- Extra bases prevented compared to avg. fielder DCON -- Defensive Contribution -- bases and hits prevented, as a rate. DOPS -- DCON + OPS -- quick & dirty measure of player's total contribution. National League Name HS NHS NEB DCON DOPS Nixon, O. 34 12 15 .083 .777 Grissom, M. 48 18 12 .072 .812 Jackson, D. 46 13 20 .060 .735 Lewis, D. 25 8 -6 .029 .596 Dykstra, L. 25 5 -5 .013 .794 Dascenzo, D. 10 -5 10 .001 .616 Finley, S. 32 -2 2 -.003 .759 Lankford, R. 39 4 -12 -.007 .844 Martinez, D. 21 5 -16 -.017 .660 VanSlyke, A. 30 -4 -17 -.040 .846 Sanders, R. 7 -10 -4 -.059 .759 Butler, B. 1 -29 5 -.088 .716 Johnson, H. 3 -12 -19 -.118 .548 Ordered by DOPS .846 VanSlyke .844 Lankford .812 Grissom .794 Dykstra .777 Nixon .759 Finley .759 Sanders .735 Jackson .730 *NL Average* .716 Butler .660 Martinez .616 Dascenzo .596 Lewis .548 Johnson American League --------------- Name HS NHS NEB DCON DOPS Lofton, K. 57 32 17 .220 .947 Wilson, W. 47 26 0 .125 .787 White, D. 52 25 28 .119 .812 Felix, J. 22 0 32 .063 .713 Devereaux, M. 43 16 0 .047 .832 McRae, H. 38 11 -1 .038 .631 Yount, R. 31 8 -3 .022 .737 Kelly, R. 13 -6 -3 -.025 .681 Johnson, L. 23 -5 -13 -.040 .641 Griffey, K. 15 -9 -12 -.052 .844 Puckett, K. 13 -13 -15 -.063 .801 Cuyler, M. 6 -10 -6 -.088 .503 Gonzalez, J. 0 -21 -15 -.095 .738 Order by DOPS .947 Lofton .844 Griffey .832 Devereaux .812 White .801 Puckett .787 Wilson .738 Gonzalez .737 Yount .713 Felix .709 *AL Average* .681 Kelly .641 Johnson .631 McRae .503 Cuyler More discussion -- DCON formula: ((NHS + NDP)/PA) + ((NHS + NDP + NEB)/AB) Why such a bizzare formula? Basically, it's designed to be added into the OPS, with the idea that "a run prevented is as important as a run scored". The extra outs are factored into OBP, while the extra bases removed are factored into SLG. That's why I used PA and AB as the divisors. For more discussion see the post on Hits Stolen -- First Base 1992 -- Dale J. Stephenson |*| (steph@cs.uiuc.edu) |*| Baseball fanatic "It is considered good to look wise, especially when not overburdened with information" -- J. Golden Kimball